A Comparative Evaluation of CO2 Mitigation Options for Japan using the NICE Model
Hiroshi YAGITA, Yasuhiko KONDO, Mitsuo KOBAYASHI, Atsushi INABA
Global warming has been recognized as a problem requiring urgent attention. COP3, held in Kyoto in December 1997, decided that within the specified time frame of 2008 to 2102, developed countries must undertake legally binding control and reduce greenhouse gas emissions with numerical targets. For Japan, the CO2 emission reduction target is - 6% from the 1990 level. To clear the target, several countermeasures have been thought and their effectiveness must be measured quantitatively. We compared the effect of the CO2mitigation options relatively by using NIRE CO2 Emission model (NICE). NICE is a domestic energy model, which can evaluate the various scenarios about energy demand and supply. We estimated future CO2 emission of Japan in a short term until the year 2010 and in a long term until the year 2050. As for 2050-year long term, the industrial division countermeasure or the power generation division countermeasure was effective and the considerable amount of CO2emission reduction was possible. On the other hand in short term until the year 2010, it was impossible to achieve the CO2 emission reduction target committed by COP3, even though countermeasures in the industry including the power generation were applied.
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