Energy balance of China in 2010
Yasuhiko KONDO, Atsushi INABA
In order to assess the impact of the economic growth on the energy structure, the total primary energy supply (TPES) of China in 2010 was estimated assuming that the ratio of energy consumption to the GNP growth is 0.7. This ratio is nearly the average of GNP growth rate in China from 1981 to 1990, after the projection of energy demand of various the sectors, e. g., industry, transportation, and other sectors. Our estimated TPES was then compared with the TPES projected for the same year by the International Energy Agency (IEA) and by the Energy Research Center China (ERCC).
As the result of this study, it is clear that the TPES is significantly affected by the assumed energy consumption to the GNP growth ratio. The lower GNP growth projected by IEA and ERCC (between 0.43 and 0.53) resulted in lower in lower TPES estimates, when compared to our predictions. In our estimation, coal will still be one of the main energy resources for China at 2010. If the fractional distillation technology to convert crude oil to gasoline and diesel oil is remarkably improvemed, the clude oil supply will then depend on the demand for liquid fuel for transportation. Therefore the increase in the motorization will likely have a great influence on structure of energy demand and supply in China in the near future.