Estimation of the Final Energy Consumption and GDP in View of Economic Indexes
Shigeru TAKANO, Eiji OBATA
The developed countries except for the USA, have ratified the Kyoto protocol as of February 16th, 2005. Under the protocol, Japan must carry out the promised reduction in greenhouse gas emissions of 6.0 percent from 1990 levels during 2008-2012. The target value for final energy consumption by Japan in 2012 was 12.7×1018J/Year. However, using an L-model of logistic approximation, we have estimated that the final energy consumption in 2012 will be 17.0×1018J/Year. If it is possible to decrease the export amount and increase the oil price, the final energy consumption should be below the target value 12.7×1018J/Year.
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