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システム/制御/情報 Vol. 27 (2014), No. 7

ISIJ International
belloff
オンライン版ISSN: 2185-811X
冊子版ISSN: 1342-5668
発行機関: THE INSTITUTE OF SYSTEMS, CONTROL AND INFORMATION ENGINEERS (ISCIE)

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システム/制御/情報 Vol. 27 (2014), No. 7

二次医療圏における夜間救急医療モデルの構築とその利用

市川 学, 春日 雄翔, 出口 弘, 金谷 泰宏

pp. 259-267

DOI:

10.5687/iscie.27.259

抄録

The current Japanese night-time emergency health care system can no longer satisfy patients' demand due to the patient's changing consultation behavior and the doctor's uneven distribution. In order to understand the current situation of the night-time emergency health care in Japan, we propose a model to simulate the whole process of the night-time emergency health care system, including the patient's consultation behavior process, the patient's transportation process, and the negotiation process between a medical institute and an ambulance. We apply the agent-based modeling (ABM) approach to take into account the decision-making process of the patient, the medical institution, and the re services department. We validate the model according to the actual patients' ambulance transportation time in the real situation. Especially, this model allows us to evaluate the proposed plan for improving the current daily rotation system of the Japanese night-time emergency health care system. As a result, we find that the proposed new daily rotation system will improve the medical services without raising the burden of the medical institute.

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二次医療圏における夜間救急医療モデルの構築とその利用

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電力二次小売システムに基づく分散センサーネットワークの提案とデータ基盤への利用

佐藤 彰洋, 高木 舞人, 長廣 剛

pp. 268-278

DOI:

10.5687/iscie.27.268

抄録

This paper proposes decentralized energy management system (DEMS) consisting of center and sensor nodes. The center node has an ability to control sensor nodes which contain sensors and controllers of electricity. We show data on electrical power consumption of Osaka Prefectural Government Sakishima Building (Cosmo tower) located at Osaka Sakishima District. We prototyped a center node and sensor nodes and measure temperature and light strength in Asia Trade Center Building located at Osaka Sakishima District. We propose an indicator of human theremal demand using temperature and light strength measured by the prototype system.

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電力二次小売システムに基づく分散センサーネットワークの提案とデータ基盤への利用

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エージェントベースの人口推計モデルにおける属性決定手法の評価

福田 純也, 喜多 一

pp. 279-289

DOI:

10.5687/iscie.27.279

抄録

In agent-based simulation using actual social statistics, attributes of all the agents have to been decided to meet the statistics. However, they can’t be decided uniquely because statistics gives only limited number of aggregated values. To this problem, Hara et al. have proposed a method of formulating the problem as a constrained optimization problem, and solving it using simulated annealing. They applied it to estimation of future population. However, they didn’t carry out evaluation of computational performance of their model. In this paper, the authors improved implementation of their model to enhance computational performance, discuss convergence of the optimization process and evaluate computational load of their method. Estimation results are compared with an estimation using conventional cohort-component method.

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エージェントベースの人口推計モデルにおける属性決定手法の評価

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ゲーミングを活用した複雑なエージェントベースモデル理解促進の方法論

後藤 裕介, 杉本 陽拓, 滝沢 洋介, 高橋 真吾

pp. 290-298

DOI:

10.5687/iscie.27.290

抄録

Stakeholders of a complex agent-based model (ABM) need to understand and accredit the ABM, that contains the results of scenario analysis provided by ABM analysts, when we design management systems in an organization with social simulation. There are two problems for understanding and accrediting complex ABMs: (1) The results described by complex micro–macro dynamics often hinder the stakeholders from understanding the results by reading analysts’documents; (2) Most stakeholders adhere to find a difference between the reality itself and the ABM that consists of essential factors. We proposed a methodology that facilitates stakeholders to understand an ABM by playing a card game with adequate similarities to the ABM, and we confirmed whether the methodology can generate effective card games by having four preliminary experiments.

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ゲーミングを活用した複雑なエージェントベースモデル理解促進の方法論

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社会シミュレーション手法による“Do-It-Yourself Lottery"の分析

山田 隆志, 寺野 隆雄

pp. 299-308

DOI:

10.5687/iscie.27.299

抄録

This study investigates what kind of dynamics players lead to in Barrow’s “do-it-yourself lottery” by agent-based computational economics approach. The lottery is such that players choose a positive integer which is expected to be the smallest but anyone else does not choose. For this purpose, we consider a simple game form in which players know the preceding result, not plays of others, for their decision making and then pursue computer simulations by changing the number of players and the upper limit. Our main finding is threefold: First, both the distributions of submitted and winning integer are different from those in steady states when the value of sensitivity paramenter is small. Second, game efficiencies are higher than those in theory. Besides, in contrast to the theory, as the value of sensitivity parameter becomes larger, they rise. Third, there is a tendency of splitting the players into a winner and the losers.

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社会シミュレーション手法による“Do-It-Yourself Lottery"の分析

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非対称情報下の市場におけるシグナルに関するエージェントベースシミュレーションによる研究

杜 逆索, 村田 忠彦

pp. 309-318

DOI:

10.5687/iscie.27.309

抄録

In this paper, we examine signals in a market where asymmetric information is only available between sellers and buyers by agent-simulations to avoid the quality deterioration in a market. Our analysis and simulations show that the quality deterioration can be avoided when sellers employ a quality-related signals whose cost depends on their quality rate, and when the cost of goods, the amount of goods, and the cost of signals are appropriately determined. Besides, we show the reason why sudden fluctuations of good quality occur in a market with quality-related signals through our computer simulation.

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非対称情報下の市場におけるシグナルに関するエージェントベースシミュレーションによる研究

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エージェントベースシミュレーションによる高い致死性を持つ感染症対策におけるリスク分析手法の提案

石西 正幸, 市川 学, 田沼 英樹, 出口 弘, 金谷 泰宏

pp. 319-325

DOI:

10.5687/iscie.27.319

抄録

This paper aims to propose a risk assessment method on countermeasure against infectious disease with high fatality rate using social simulation. We constructed a novel model which are able to visualize social vulnerability against outbreak of infectious disease such as smallpox. In this model, disease state transition of smallpox, infection process, social structure, human activity, social countermeasure, simulation condition that include parameters, and simulation results are described. We evaluate the social protection policies by an agent-based model using Spot Oriented Agent Role Simulator (SOARS). This model is able to visualize the risk of social vulnerability against smallpox and social vulnerability is different among generations.

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エージェントベースシミュレーションによる高い致死性を持つ感染症対策におけるリスク分析手法の提案

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