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Transactions of the Institute of Systems, Control and Information Engineers Vol. 27 (2014), No. 7

ISIJ International
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ONLINE ISSN: 2185-811X
PRINT ISSN: 1342-5668
Publisher: THE INSTITUTE OF SYSTEMS, CONTROL AND INFORMATION ENGINEERS (ISCIE)

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Transactions of the Institute of Systems, Control and Information Engineers Vol. 27 (2014), No. 7

The Construction and Usage of a Simulation Model of Night-time Emergency Health Care System

Manabu Ichikawa, Yusho Kasuga, Hiroshi Deguchi, Yasuhiro Kanatani

pp. 259-267

Abstract

The current Japanese night-time emergency health care system can no longer satisfy patients' demand due to the patient's changing consultation behavior and the doctor's uneven distribution. In order to understand the current situation of the night-time emergency health care in Japan, we propose a model to simulate the whole process of the night-time emergency health care system, including the patient's consultation behavior process, the patient's transportation process, and the negotiation process between a medical institute and an ambulance. We apply the agent-based modeling (ABM) approach to take into account the decision-making process of the patient, the medical institution, and the re services department. We validate the model according to the actual patients' ambulance transportation time in the real situation. Especially, this model allows us to evaluate the proposed plan for improving the current daily rotation system of the Japanese night-time emergency health care system. As a result, we find that the proposed new daily rotation system will improve the medical services without raising the burden of the medical institute.

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The Construction and Usage of a Simulation Model of Night-time Emergency Health Care System

Distributed Sensor Network Based on Secondary Retail of Electricity and Usage of Data Management System

Aki-Hiro Sato, Maito Takagi, Tsuyoshi Nagahiro

pp. 268-278

Abstract

This paper proposes decentralized energy management system (DEMS) consisting of center and sensor nodes. The center node has an ability to control sensor nodes which contain sensors and controllers of electricity. We show data on electrical power consumption of Osaka Prefectural Government Sakishima Building (Cosmo tower) located at Osaka Sakishima District. We prototyped a center node and sensor nodes and measure temperature and light strength in Asia Trade Center Building located at Osaka Sakishima District. We propose an indicator of human theremal demand using temperature and light strength measured by the prototype system.

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Distributed Sensor Network Based on Secondary Retail of Electricity and Usage of Data Management System

Evaluation of a Method for Deciding Agents' Attributes for an Agent-based Population Estimation Model

Junya Fukuta, Hajime Kita

pp. 279-289

Abstract

In agent-based simulation using actual social statistics, attributes of all the agents have to been decided to meet the statistics. However, they can’t be decided uniquely because statistics gives only limited number of aggregated values. To this problem, Hara et al. have proposed a method of formulating the problem as a constrained optimization problem, and solving it using simulated annealing. They applied it to estimation of future population. However, they didn’t carry out evaluation of computational performance of their model. In this paper, the authors improved implementation of their model to enhance computational performance, discuss convergence of the optimization process and evaluate computational load of their method. Estimation results are compared with an estimation using conventional cohort-component method.

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Evaluation of a Method for Deciding Agents' Attributes for an Agent-based Population Estimation Model

Methodology for Facilitating Understandings of Complex Agent-Based Models by Gaming

Yusuke Goto, Akihiro Sugimoto, Yosuke Takizawa, Shingo Takahashi

pp. 290-298

Abstract

Stakeholders of a complex agent-based model (ABM) need to understand and accredit the ABM, that contains the results of scenario analysis provided by ABM analysts, when we design management systems in an organization with social simulation. There are two problems for understanding and accrediting complex ABMs: (1) The results described by complex micro–macro dynamics often hinder the stakeholders from understanding the results by reading analysts’documents; (2) Most stakeholders adhere to find a difference between the reality itself and the ABM that consists of essential factors. We proposed a methodology that facilitates stakeholders to understand an ABM by playing a card game with adequate similarities to the ABM, and we confirmed whether the methodology can generate effective card games by having four preliminary experiments.

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Methodology for Facilitating Understandings of Complex Agent-Based Models by Gaming

A Computational Study of “Do-It-Yourself Lottery" with Incomplete Information

Takashi Yamada, Takao Terano

pp. 299-308

Abstract

This study investigates what kind of dynamics players lead to in Barrow’s “do-it-yourself lottery” by agent-based computational economics approach. The lottery is such that players choose a positive integer which is expected to be the smallest but anyone else does not choose. For this purpose, we consider a simple game form in which players know the preceding result, not plays of others, for their decision making and then pursue computer simulations by changing the number of players and the upper limit. Our main finding is threefold: First, both the distributions of submitted and winning integer are different from those in steady states when the value of sensitivity paramenter is small. Second, game efficiencies are higher than those in theory. Besides, in contrast to the theory, as the value of sensitivity parameter becomes larger, they rise. Third, there is a tendency of splitting the players into a winner and the losers.

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A Computational Study of “Do-It-Yourself Lottery" with Incomplete Information

Study on Signals in Market with Asymmetric Information Using Agent-Based Simulation

Nisuo Du, Tadahiko Murata

pp. 309-318

Abstract

In this paper, we examine signals in a market where asymmetric information is only available between sellers and buyers by agent-simulations to avoid the quality deterioration in a market. Our analysis and simulations show that the quality deterioration can be avoided when sellers employ a quality-related signals whose cost depends on their quality rate, and when the cost of goods, the amount of goods, and the cost of signals are appropriately determined. Besides, we show the reason why sudden fluctuations of good quality occur in a market with quality-related signals through our computer simulation.

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Study on Signals in Market with Asymmetric Information Using Agent-Based Simulation

A Proposal of Risk Assessment Method on Countermeasure against High Fatality Infectious Disease Using Agent-based Simulation

Masayuki Ishinishi, Manabu Ichikawa, Hideki Tanuma, Hiroshi Deguchi, Yasuhiro Kanatani

pp. 319-325

Abstract

This paper aims to propose a risk assessment method on countermeasure against infectious disease with high fatality rate using social simulation. We constructed a novel model which are able to visualize social vulnerability against outbreak of infectious disease such as smallpox. In this model, disease state transition of smallpox, infection process, social structure, human activity, social countermeasure, simulation condition that include parameters, and simulation results are described. We evaluate the social protection policies by an agent-based model using Spot Oriented Agent Role Simulator (SOARS). This model is able to visualize the risk of social vulnerability against smallpox and social vulnerability is different among generations.

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A Proposal of Risk Assessment Method on Countermeasure against High Fatality Infectious Disease Using Agent-based Simulation

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